All right boys and girls, back by popular demand, the Guru has returned!

Last year's thread was a huge success, reaching 56 pages and hopefully providing insight on who to start/who to bench, injury updates, and other insider information that assisted you in winning your league championship.

This year, I want more of the same, but with some minor tweaks and adjustments. I started this thread a few weeks earlier than last year because I also want to discuss some Fantasy Football drafting tactics, ideas, and strategies. RB's the first two rounds? Wait until the 5th round for QB's? Follow the herd, or the growing in popularity "Do the opposite" draft method? All of these can and will be discussed here.

I will do my best to answer any or all fantasy questions that you may have (unless of course, you are my opponent that week), so get the questions in and keep them rolling! This is now my number one T-dub priority!

There are a few burning questions heading into this year that could change the landscape of Fantasy football, such as....

Can LT and Drew Brees continue their unbelievable fantasy runs this year?

What impact will Randy Moss and Stallworth have on the Pats offense & Tom Brady's value?

Will McGahee on the Ravens boom or bust?

How high would you draft Calvin Johnson?

So, since we are just getting into summer, lets kickof this topic by discussing your number one picks in all of the big 4 (QB, RB, WR & TE). Let me know what you think.

Best of Luck to all!


- The Guru

6/7/2007 4:51:20 PM

Quote :

"RB's the first two rounds"

Usually a must imo.

Quote :

"your number one picks in all of the big 4 (QB, RB, WR & TE)"

Peyton (no brainer)
LT
Smitty
Gates

6/7/2007 4:57:17 PM

Palmer
LT
Holt or S. Smith (Can't decide)
Gates (even though i don't think i'll draft a TE in any of my leagues)


Some co-workers of mine just put together a league that will include individual defensive players. I've never drafted defensive players before. Can we try to discuss them in this thread? I don't remember last year's thread talking about them much.

6/7/2007 5:36:29 PM

for those who don't know:

Quarterback = the player who throws the ball to other players

Running back = the player who takes handoffs and catches passed out of the backfield

6/7/2007 5:36:36 PM

would you draft Maurice Jones-Drew ahead of Reggie Bush?

6/7/2007 6:05:40 PM

-RB's the first two rounds is certainly not a certainty for me. I have my eyes set on the top WR's, and I think I can find a good value past round 2, especially if we can only start 2 RB's. Also, computer simulations I've done indicate that RB, WR, WR, RB is better than RB, RB, WR, WR. Not saying I'll do that, especially since some of my #7-12 ranked WR's aren't in the top 12 on the average lists, but interesting nonetheless. (Yes, I said computer simulations. These things happen when you combine fantasy football interest with a statistics degree and nothing better to do.)

-I don't think I'll hurry for a QB. I can't count on them enough to outdo solid RB/WR's. I also see a lot of parity. If I can't get Bulger or better at good value, I'm good to wait forever to get one.

-Regression to the average aside, of course I still like LT and Brees.

-Moss and Stallworth will be good. I don't value them as much as others seem to though.

-I like McGahee, top 15.

-I could take Calvin as a third receiver.

-Peyton, LT, Smith, Gates

6/7/2007 6:21:34 PM

One of the leagues I play in also include defensive players, but there are so many good point makers on defense it isn't a big deal. It just depends on the point system. The one I'm in, a lot of tackles can balance out not many INT's or FF's, so LB's are your big money makers.

I'm in a 2-player keeper league and I basically have a no-brainer situation, keeping L.T. and S. Jackson(great trade to get him last season).

So I'm set at RB, can look to WR/QB with my first pick.

QB - Manning (don't sleep on Kitna)
RB - LT(numbers will drop some)
WR - T. Holt(consistency)
TE - Gates(numbers could go up with Norv there)

Brady - That team still looks to run first, but now he has enough weapons that he can't just complain about that. Moss' number will be up but not like his old Vikings days. Stallworth's numbers will be down, splitting touches and the different offense won't help him.

McGahee - Ogden coming back REALLY helps him a lot, so I think he'll definitely be better than he was in Baltimore.

Johnson is possibly a #2 but a solid #3. That offense puts the ball up too much for him not to get some looks despite Detroit's history with WR's.

6/7/2007 7:21:01 PM

Quote :

"would you draft Maurice Jones-Drew ahead of Reggie Bush?"

I really like Jones-Drew, but I'd rather have a split of NO's offense than of Jax's. Besides, since Bush is going 10th on average and MJD is going 16th, that's doubtful to be a good value decision when they're both on the board.

6/8/2007 1:39:32 PM

See, I disagree just a bit. Here's a look at last years stats:

Bush

565 rushing yards 6 rushing TD's
742 receiving yards 2 receiving TD's

X-Factor: 88 receptions

Jones-Drew

941 rushing yards 13 rushing TD's
436 receiving yards 2 receiving TD's

X-Factor: 873 kickoff & punt return yards

Jones-Drew wins the rushing yards by ~400yds, and outscores Bush in overall TD's 15-8 (16-9 if you count return TD's).

Bush gets ~300 more receiving yards and has double the receptions + the media appeal that he is a star.

Overall, both are great picks, but when you look at both, Jones-Drew is and every down back that can go outside or between the tackles. Both of the RB's counterparts (Taylor & McAllister) are extremely injury prone, so you have to think about who would be more likely to handle the load if one were to go down. That answer is undoubtedly Jones-Drew.

When comparing these two, its imperative that you know your league settings. If you get Points for return yards, Jones-Drew is the clear cut winner. Points per reception? Bush could easily be the man. Overall, with both scoring systems (or with neither), I say Jones-Drew gets the edge by a nose. He could be one of the great producers this fantasy season.

- The Guru

6/8/2007 2:02:00 PM

plus jones-drew is likely to have a larger part in his teams offense than Bush......The Saints just have more offensive weapons than the Jags.

6/8/2007 2:06:30 PM

got bored at work and went ahead and joined a league and drafted. Its under my second yahoo email address, so I probably wont be going too in-depth in this league. But anyways, it was some fun practice and got my mind into the game a little

Heres how it went (there are 10 teams, I had the 9th pick in the draft):

QB Peyton Manning
WR Torry Holt
WR Braylon Edwards
WR Chris Chambers
RB Rudi Johnson
RB Marion Barber III
TE Antonio Gates
W/R Deion Branch
BN Warrick Dunn
BN Michael Vick
BN Drew Carter
BN Fred Taylor

K Nate Kaeding

DEF Miami
BN Carolina

D Adrian Wilson
D London Fletcher
BN Jason Taylor (Mia - DL)

6/8/2007 2:25:13 PM

^ huh? It's June... why would any league draft?

I would be pretty pissed if I draft LT2 and then he got hit by a bus 2 months before the season started.

6/8/2007 2:26:13 PM

yeah I know, there are lots of leagues drafting now. I just joined a random public league drafting today so I could kill some time at work

6/8/2007 2:32:39 PM

I'll probably wait until after preseason to start my fantasy teams. I'm thinking about joining the TWW League. Not sure if it's full already.

6/8/2007 2:48:30 PM

does ESPN.com have their simulated drafter back up yet?

6/8/2007 8:38:11 PM

unfortunately, no.

It wont be up until for at least another month I think.

I have been trying for the last few weeks, but everything is still set on 2006.

Ha, my response time is still up to speed. Lets see if i can keep this up for Sunday mornings during FF season.



[Edited on June 8, 2007 at 8:43 PM. Reason : asdf]

6/8/2007 8:43:12 PM

Can LT and Drew Brees continue their unbelievable fantasy runs this year? yes

What impact will Randy Moss and Stallworth have on the Pats offense & Tom Brady's value? significant

Will McGahee on the Ravens boom or bust? not bad not great

How high would you draft Calvin Johnson? 4th rd in a 12 team format

6/9/2007 4:41:33 PM

Hey, I'd briefly like to talk about Live Drafts. I mean Live as in, in person, with charts, etc.

Has anyone ever done them? We did something like it waaaaaaaaay back in the day, before Yahoo and ESPN did them for you, but I know there are much cooler bells and whistles these days.

If anyone has ever done them, speak up and share how they went, what was required, etc.

thanks.

6/9/2007 8:36:32 PM

Who is up for a mock draft?

This is a really clean one and is color coordinated.

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/mockdrafts

enjoy!


- The Guru

6/11/2007 2:12:15 PM

the draft page won't load.

6/11/2007 2:45:21 PM

works fine for me

just click the link, then click on a draft (and draft number) that you want to be in.

the second column shows how long until draft time.

6/11/2007 2:49:58 PM

anyone up for a mock draft?

6/11/2007 7:05:04 PM

Prufrock and I are mock drafting right now.

I'll report results after we are through.

6/11/2007 7:22:13 PM

this years sleepers in my opinion - not necesarilly early rounders, but good to pick up late or watch for in FA:

Marcel Shipp
Chad Jackson
Michael Turner
Ciatric Fason
Kevin Faulk
Garret Wolfe

6/11/2007 7:50:11 PM

I wouldn't pick any of those guys.

They won't get any playing time unless somebody ahead of them gets injured.

6/11/2007 8:13:25 PM

the draft is over...Prufrock and I pushed for the most part (but he paid zero attention to bye weeks).

Let me know if someone wants to do another one.

PM me if interested.

6/11/2007 8:22:01 PM

I'm fucking up a draft on Y! @ the moment.

Got another one that starts at 10:30 if anyone wants in.

6/11/2007 8:33:06 PM

holla at me about the 1030 draft

is it for a real league, or a mock draft?

6/11/2007 8:59:25 PM

It's for as real a league as you want to make it, but the same rules as the TWW league I made.

6/11/2007 9:32:00 PM

League # 49723. One spot left.

6/11/2007 9:46:09 PM

anyone up for a mock draft?

PM me if interested

6/12/2007 10:15:25 AM

^Details.....apparently I can't do the online ones at work.

[Edited on June 12, 2007 at 10:22 AM. Reason : .]

6/12/2007 10:21:58 AM

if you're in a keeper league, with an extra year for rookies and retention,

would you draft calvin johnson higher than he should this year, for potential?

6/12/2007 10:32:16 AM

^of course.

Its no secret that many NFL insiders as well as players say that Calvin has the body type and mentality to be one of the best ever.

I cant even fathom how good he will be in 2-3 years.

6/12/2007 11:11:11 AM

^of whenever he leaves Detroit, whichever comes first.

6/12/2007 11:12:56 AM

Detroit really is right on the brink of being a playoff contender though.

If Matt Millen gets fired or by the grace of God makes some good O-line moves either this year or next off-season, they could easily be a wild card team.

6/12/2007 11:19:58 AM

I don't know, right now i'd put

Seattle
St. Louis
Carolina
Philly
New York
Altlanta

all ahead of Det. for a wild card (assuming the Saints, 49ers, Bears, and Cowboys win their divisions). I think the lions are cursed (and righfully so) b/c the ruined the career of the best RB to play the game......See Millen making his plethora of shitty moves w/o getting fired.

6/12/2007 11:29:14 AM

"Mock" draft tonight anyone?

Yahoo! league #53513. No password. 8 spots open I think.

6/12/2007 6:53:17 PM

last year i took p riv in the first round and filled up the rest of my roster with panthers

cause the previous year i got sick of caring about games i shouldn't care about

6/12/2007 7:16:28 PM

^gg

6/12/2007 7:49:26 PM

ESPN Releases their 2007 Fantasy Football on June 25 (A week from tomorrow). This invluses the mock draft website.

Their Fantasy Football magazine comes out this Tuesday.

6/17/2007 11:18:18 PM

Larry Johnson preparing to hold out the 2007-08 season.

Quote :

"Running back Larry Johnson is preparing to hold out if the Chiefs don't rework his current contract, according to the Kansas City Star. "I'm prepared," Johnson told the Star's Jason Witlock in response to a question about being prepared for a long holdout. "They [my father and agent] got me saving money. They already started setting aside different accounts, if that would have to happen. They're already telling me to be cautious about how I spend, where I go and stuff like that." Johnson is slated to make about $1.7 million this season and will likely be able to void his contract following the season. However, the Chiefs could franchise him for 2008, as paying him the average of the top five backs would be a bargain. That keeps him in Kansas City into 2009, at which point LJ will turn 30 and the window of opportunity for a big payday will be closing quickly. Clearly LJ is worth more, but the Chiefs seem reluctant to spend a boatload on him past this season. A potential holdout is just one more factor to consider as you debate where LJ falls in line behind LaDainian Tomlinson atop your fantasy draft board. "

Boy, this would throw the FF world into Limbo if he were to hold out. Crazy Stuff. The Chiefs better come off with the goods here.

6/21/2007 1:43:43 PM

Panthro give us a top 10 fantasy mock draft

ie

1. Tomlinson
2. ...
3. ...

6/21/2007 1:58:11 PM

well, I've done about 4 mock drafts today (I'm a fantasy football dork, I admit it), and the general consensus is the following:

1. RB - LaDainian Tomlinson, SD – Poised to have another stellar year and will remain the golden standard of excellence in the Fantasy Football world. No one is better than him as a combined rushing, receiving, and hell, even passing threat. Potential Downside: Owner Expectations. He has set the bar so high, that anything short of what he did in last year’s record breaking season may be seen as a disappointment.

2. RB - Steven Jackson, STL – Showed signs last year that he was beginning to turn into the dominant force that many thought he would be. A rare back that mixes the power of a fullback with the speed and agility of a tailback. A great pick at #2 and a PPR league’s dream. Potential Downside: The Rams new Offense. With S-Jax, Holt, Bruce and additions of Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael, there can only be so much to go around. Also, Rookie Brian Leonard will absolutely immediately cut into his carries.

3. RB - Larry Johnson, KC – More of a bruising back than the two mentioned above, Larry got more carries per game than anyone else in the NFL. Because of the dynamic of the Chiefs offensive scheme, Larry is the primary threat in both rushing and passing situations. A real beast that the Chiefs will ride to either grind out the clock, or bring them back from a deficit. Potential Downside: Offensive line and Quarterback changes. With the subtraction of Trent Green and the instability of the O-line, LJ could be facing 8 men in the box every down he is on the field. Talk about him holding out doesn’t help either. Because of this, I have seen about 25% of those with the #3 pick go with…

4. RB - Frank Gore, SF - An awesome mix of power and speed as well. Similar to S-Jax, but without the unreal receiving threat (61 receptions to Jackson’s 90). He did however manage 5.4 yds per carry last season. He is playing on a vastly improved offense that has just the right amount of weapons in Darrell Jackson, Vernon Davis and always improving Alex Smith to make him a very solid pick at the 3 or 4 spot. Potential Downside: Injury concerns and Fumbleitis. Many are skeptical about Gore lasting the entire season, and I can’t say I blame them. Had almost as many fumbles last year (8) as rushing TD’s (11).

5. RB – Joseph Addai, IND – Here is where many people start to differ on their picks. I’d put Addai at 5 simply because he is the sole starter on the most potent offense in the league. If you didn’t watch much of the Colts last year (how could you not?), Addai is for real. He can catch, sweep to the outside, and run up the gut. There isn’t a lot he can’t do. Potential Downside: The same thing that makes Addai great is the same thing that makes him a risk, with that being the offense he plays on. Manning will always be more confident throwing to Manning & Wayne then he will be handing off to anyone. There have been many 1st and Goal’s from the 3 where manning has thrown a slant into coverage as opposed to the simple handoff. You have to take the good with the bad here and know that Addai will get his chances, and lots of them on this offensive Juggernaut.

6. RB – Willie Parker, PIT – Call me crazy here, but I see Willie having a monster year this year. He was a little on the heavy side last year and had on off season, as most of the Steelers did. With a healthy Big Ben at QB, and an exciting offensive scheme, I really see Willie’s role expanding and his waist line shrinking by the time training camp starts. Potential Downside: Motivation. If Willie can be Fast Willie if he wants to be, but his heart has been questioned more than once since he has been in the league. Questions also remain about the direction of the Steelers and if they can bounce back from last year’s efforts in arguably the toughest division in football.

7. RB – Shaun Alexander, SEA – I have seen him go as high as 5 and as low as 9. It’s like my favorite Clint Eastwood movie with Shaun. The Good, The Bad & The Ugly. You never know what you are going to get with him. Personally, I think his foot issue will linger longer than anticipated, but you would be kidding yourself if you thought he didn’t at least deserve to be in the top 7. Potential Downside: Similar to LJ, Alexander is facing some serious issues with his O-line and his other offensive weapons. With D-Jax and Stevens gone, Shaun may be leaned on more than usual to carry the offensive load, the question is, can his foot hold all of that weight?

8. RB - Brian Westbrook, PHI – When he is on, he is on FIRE! B-Rabbit is a duel threat of rushing and receiving. Coming off of an absolute monster year. He was doing what Reggie Bush is doing before it was even cool. He is a WR in a RB’s clothes that always has the juke button held down. He has arguably the best speed of anyone in the top 10, and plays on an offense that makes it a priority to get the ball in Westbrook’s hands one way or the other. Potential Downside: Health. When he is on, he is on FIRE!! The problem is you usually don’t know if he is on or not until about 12:30pm on Sunday morning. Very susceptible to the last minute “tweak” or “pull” that keeps him out for the day, so wondering what his status is easily becomes a full time job.

9. RB – Rudi Johnson, CIN – Rudi is my man. He is the Rodney Dangerfield of Fantasy Football. He gets no respect. He does the same thing year in and year out but fails to get the acclaim that lesser RB’s get. 1300 yds + the last 3 years, 12 TD’s + the last three as well. With Palmer back in form, he should get more chances to pound it in the end zone than he did last year. A very solid pick that is unmatched as far as consistency, but minus the flashiness and multiple game TD’s. Potential Downside: Chris Perry. Perry missed a lot of last year with an injury, but even the year before he was stealing carries on 1st and 2nd downs. Because Rudi is probably the slowest of the top 10, Perry often sees more looks just to continue to give the defense different sets. Watch that this season. It could be an issue.

10. RB - Laurence Maroney, NE – Maroney is without a doubt, one of the biggest questions going into the Fantasy Football Season. He is now the man in NE, a team that boast a new set of studs at WR in Moss and Stallworth, as well as a revamped defense that should get the ball back early and often and put the Pats in lots of scoring opportunities. He will likely be taken off of his kick return duties so he can focus primarily on the RB position, but that is good news to most of us unless your team counts return yards. He could easily be a top 5 RB if all goes well. Potential Downside: “If all goes well.” The Pats have a new starting RB in Maroney, and their top 3 WR’s (Moss, Stallworth & Welker) are all new as well. This offense could take a while to gell, but in my opinion, the wait will be worth it. Maroney’s biggest question mark right now is the status of his shoulder, which underwent a minor surgery in the offseason. We will know more about that once we see him in training camp.

Honorable Mention: Reggie Bush (NO) & Travis Henry (DEN)

I hope this helps! We will definitely do more as the Fantasy Football Season goes on!

- The Guru

[Edited on June 21, 2007 at 5:11 PM. Reason : Spacing]

6/21/2007 5:07:12 PM

Anyone have any different rankings than those listed above?

I'd love to hear other opinions.

6/22/2007 4:05:22 PM

1. RB - LaDainian Tomlinson, SD (no brainer)

2. RB - Frank Gore, SF (he'll have a monster year with the newly loaded 9ers)

3. RB - Brian Westbrook, PHI (Runs and Catches, usually at least 1/3 of phillys offense)

4. RB – Larry Johnson, KC (as of now b/c of the contract issues could easily be as high as #2)

5. RB – Steven Jackson, STL (always a beast, the improved passing game will actually help imo, but a bad d might leave them having to play catch up too much)

6. RB - Reggie Bush, NO (the bonus of his receiving and return duty puts him in)

7. RB – Shaun Alexander, SEA (great when healthy, but since the foot injury, he's not been the same)

8. RB - Willis Mcgahee (numbers even close to jamal Lewis' of a few years ago would be monster, and he could do it especially with that D holding teams to low scores)

9. RB – Rudi Johnson, CIN (consistent year in and year out)

10. RB - Laurence Maroney, NE (the O is stacked and he's bound to get in on a lot of the action)

[Edited on June 22, 2007 at 4:21 PM. Reason : .]

6/22/2007 4:21:06 PM

alright, I know its way early, but in the league that I had a draft in I was offered the following trade

I would give up:

Peyton Manning
Larry Fitzgerald

I would get:

Tom Brady
Steve Smith

what do you guys think about this one? I'm feeling like I should pull the trigger on this one

6/24/2007 7:38:45 PM

You're not looking at a huge improvement, but I'd probably do it.

6/24/2007 10:58:03 PM

i'll probably take lamont jordan in the first round just so i dont have my hopes up late in the season...losing hurts worse when you're in the mix than if you completely suck from the beginning

6/25/2007 2:08:17 PM

LOL @ Travis Henry.

Everyone seems to have forgotten the rule of no picking Bronco's RBs.

6/25/2007 2:12:00 PM